Wednesday, April 24, 2013

With Democratic Senators dropping like flies what does 2014 mean for the Democrats?

     With Senator Max Baucus (D-MT) announcing his retirement on Tuesday the Democrats are starting to worry as he is the sixth Democratic Senator to announce his retirement at the end of his term in 2014. He is the fourth Senator from a "red" or "swing" state. With Tim Johnson (D-SD), Jay Rockefller (D-WV), and Tom Harkin (D-IA) all retiring with Sen. Baucus, the Democrats keeping the Senate in 2014 does not look like a probability. The other two Democrats retiring are from "Safe Democratic" states. (Carl Levin D-MI and Frank Lautenberg D-NJ). The Democrats will keep these these two seats no matter who runs, while the other four seats are up for grabs. Three of the four states voted for Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election and the other state (Iowa) was considered a "swing" state, sided with president Obama.

      The main thing that kept these Senators from being unseated was that they were incumbents. Without incumbents running in these states it will be an uphill battle for the Democrats. The Democrats currently hold a 53-45 lead in the Senate. They also have two Independents caucusing with them which  rounds it out to 55-45. With close battles in these four states and battles in other states such as Alaska, where  Sen. Mark Begich is up for reelection, the Democrats may lose their majority in the Senate.

     The Democrats main concern for 2014 has been regaining the House, but they may have to now focus their attention on keeping The Senate. Historically, keeping the Senate is a much more realistic task. The incumbent President's party has not gained seats in the House of Representatives since FDR, and Obama lost the most seats back in 2010, losing 63 seats. With the Republicans holding a 31 seat lead in the house (possibly soon-to-be 30 with South Carolina's first Congressional District's special election leaning Democratic) it seems highly unlikely that the Democrats will retake the House. If I was the DNC I would focus more of my attention, and money on keeping the Senate, (even gaining seats in the Senate), than retaking a house that seems impossible to conquer.

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